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가트너 선정, 2013년 전략적 기술 트랜드 10선

지구빵집 2012. 11. 14. 17:00
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가트너 선정, 2013년 전략적 기술 트랜드 10선


가트너 그룹은 2013년 한 해 동안 기업조직에서 유념하여야 할 10가지 IT 트렌드에 대하여 2012년 10월 25일 개최된 가트너 심포지엄/IT 엑스포에서 제시하고 있다. 가트너 그룹은 향후 3년에 걸쳐서 기업에 가장 큰 영향을 주게 될 전략적 기술이 무엇일지에 대하여 우선순위를 두고 제시하고 있는데, 대규모 투자가 필요한 부분은 무엇이고, 늦은 투자로 인하여 나타날 수 있는 위험요소는 무엇인지에 대하여 종합적으로 제시하고 있다. 


가트너 그룹이 이번에 선정한 기술들은 이미 성숙되어 다양한 사용자들에게 활용되고 있는 부분들로, 향후 5년 내에 관련 산업계에 파괴적 혁신을 가져오거나 얼리 어댑터에 의한 채택을 통하여 새로운 기회를 제공할 것으로 전망되는 부분들로 기업조직의 장기적인 측면의 계획과 다양한 프로그램에 커다란 영향을 미칠 것으로 기대된다. 


가트너 그룹 관계자는 대다수의 기업조직에게 전략적으로 작용할 수 있는 10가지 주요 기술들을 선정하였는데, IT 리더들이 향후 2년에 걸쳐서 전략적인 계획 차원의 프로세스로 역할을 수행하게 만들게 될 것이라고 제시한다. 이번에 선정된 기술 모두에 대하여 기업들이 투자하거나 채택할 필요성이 존재하지 않지만, 미래에 이와 같은 기술을 어떠한 측면으로 받아들여야 되는지에 대한 심사숙고가 필요하게 될 것이라고 언급한다. 


향후 주도적인 부분으로 작용할 기술들은 소셜, 모바일, 클라우드, 정보 분야를 중심으로 새로운 컨버전스 동력으로 작용하고 있는데, 이와 같은 요소요소의 기술들이 혁신적이면서 파괴적인 성격을 가지고 있기도 하지만, 비즈니스와 산업 전반에 영향을 미치면서 기존의 비즈니스 모델을 파괴하고 새로운 기회들을 만들어내는 부분에 더 주목할 필요성이 있다고 전문가들은 제시한다. 


2013년에 주목받을 기술들 중 주요 부분들은 다음과 같다.


가트너 원본 링크 : http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=2209615



1. 모바일 디바이스 전쟁 Mobile device battles

 


가트너는 2013년에 PC를 통한 웹 접속 보다 모바일 기기를 통한 웹접속이 더 많아지게 되고, 2015년에는 판매되는 전체 핸드셋 기기 중 스마트폰이 차지하는 비율이 80퍼센트에 육박할 것이라고 전망한다. 


이와 같은 핸드셋 기기 중 윈도우즈 폰이 차지하는 비율은 약 20퍼센트가 될 것으로 전망되며, 2015년에 미디어 태블릿 기기가 차지하는 비율은 랩톱 컴퓨터의 50퍼센트에 육박하게 될 것이고 윈도우즈 8의 시장점유율은 구글사의 안드로이드와 애플사의 iOS 운영 시스템에 이어 3위에 머무를 것이라고 전망한다. 


윈도우즈 8은 마이크로소프트사가 가장 역점을 두고 있는 분야 중 하나로 사용자들이 어떻게 반응하고 현실세계에서 수행되는 환경에 있어서도 보다 개선된 인터페이스를 제공할 것이라고 전망되는 기술이기도 하다. 


이러한 방향 속에서 추진되고 있는 컨슈머라이제이션이 사용자들이 아이패드를 버리거나 사용자들이 타깃팅된 윈도우즈 8 디바이스를 채택하도록 만드는데 있어서 윈도우즈 8 채택을 하지 못하도록 하는 것을 의미하지는 않고, 윈도우즈로 대표되는 PC의 단일 플랫폼이 윈도우즈는 다양한 선택사항 중 하나로 머무를 수 있는 포스트 PC에 있어서 주요한 대체물이 된다는 부분이 주목되는 것이라고 가트너의 관계자는 제시한다.  

 

 

2. 모바일 애플리케이션과 HTML5 Mobile applications & HTML5

 


일반 사용자와 기업사용자들에게 필요한 애플리케이션을 제공하기 위한 산업 자체는 매우 복잡하고, 100곳이 넘는 도구(Tool) 관련 벤더들이 존재한다. 


가트너 그룹은 이와 같은 모바일 개발 도구들이 향후 몇 년간에 걸쳐서 여러 가지 방향으로 진화할 것이라고 전망하고 있는데 모든 유형의 모바일 애플리케이션을 포괄할 수 있는 단일 유형의 도구들은 존재하기 힘들고 여섯 가지 모바일 아키텍처를 중심으로 진화하게 될 것으로 전망되고 있다. 


이와 같은 아키텍처에는 네이티브, 스페셜, 하이브리드, HTML5, 메시지, 노 클라이언트와 같은 방식이 존재하는 것으로 전해진다. 기존 네이티브 애플리케이션들이 HTML5와 같은 웹 애플리케이션으로 대체되고 있지만 네이티브 애플리케이션이 제공하고 있는 사용자 경험과 전문화된 기능에 비추어볼 때 하루아침에 사라지지는 않을 것이라고 가트너 관계자들은 제시한다. 


개발자들에게도 보다 조정된 방식의 전체 디바이스에 걸쳐서 사용될 수 있는 터치방식에 최적화된 새로운 설계방법들이 제공될 것이라고 전망되고 있다.  

 


3. 퍼스널 클라우드 Personal Cloud

 



퍼스널 클라우드가 점차적으로 PC를 대체하면서, 개인 사용자들이 자신들의 콘텐츠를 저장하게 되는 주요한 로케이션이 될 것으로 전망되고 있다. 


사용자들은 자신들의 서비스들과 선호하는 부분들과 자신들의 디지털 라이브를 저장하는 공간으로 이를 활용하게 될 것으로 여겨지는데, 일상적인 생활의 여러 가지 부분들을 기록하고 이를 사용하도록 만들 수 있는 다양한 웹 도구들을 연결하는 수단으로 사용될 것으로 전망된다. 


퍼스널 클라우드는 여러 가지 유형의 서비스들의 독특한 집합형태로 사용될 것으로 기대되는데, 웹 데스티네이션과의 연결성이 사용자들의 컴퓨팅과 커뮤니케이션 활동에 있어서 중요한 부분들로 자리매김하는 것과 맥락을 같이한다. 


사용자들은 퍼스널 클라우드를 자신들의 디지털 욕구를 충족시켜줄 수 있는 언제 어디서나 사용 가능한 도구로 이를 인식하고 있고, 다양한 모바일 기기들을 관리하고 활용하는 부분에 있어서 어떤 기술이나 플랫폼도 이를 지배하지는 못할 것이라고 전망되고 있다. 


퍼스널 클라우드는 현재 클라이언트 측면의 디바이스에서 다양한 디바이스에 전달될 수 있는 클라우드 기반의 서비스로 진화하는 과정에 있다고 가트너의 전문가들은 제시한다. 


 

4. 기업용 앱 스토어 Enterprise App Stores

 


기업들은 다양한 스토어, 다양한 지불방식, 다양한 라이선싱 유형들을 관리하여야 하는 요구들에 부응하기 위하여 특정 애플리케이션 유형과 기기에 적합하게끔 자신들의 스토어를 새로운 방식으로 통합하고 구축하게 될 것으로 기대된다.


2014년경, 가트너 측은 프라이빗 애플리케이션 스토어의 형태로 구성원들에게 여러 가지 모바일 애플리케이션을 기업들이 제공하게 될 것이라고 언급하고 있는 가운데, 이를 효과적으로 지원하기 위하여 새로운 거버넌스와 브로커리지가 기존의 중앙화된 계획방식을 변화시키게 될 것이라고 제시하고 있다. 


 

5. 사물의 인터넷 Internet of Things

 


사물 인터넷은 인터넷으로 연결 가능한 소비자 전자제품들과 물리적 자산들과 같은 아이템들을 인터넷을 통하여 연결시키는 실제세계를 가상세계로 변모시키는 새로운 방법이라고 정의될 수 있다. 


임베디드 센서, 이미지 인식 기술, NFC 지불등의 기능들을 다양한 유형의 모바일 기기를 사용하여 구현하는 것을 의미한다. 이를 통하여 모바일 기술 자체가 특정 셀룰러 기기나 태블릿 기기에 국한되지 않고 다양한 유형으로 활용 가능하게 됨을 의미하는 것이다. 


셀룰러 기술이 의약품 용기나 자동차를 포함한 여러 가지 기기에 내장되게 되고, 스마트폰과 다양한 유형의 지능형 기기들이 셀룰러 네트워크만을 사용하지 않고 NFC, 블루투스, LE, 와이파이 등을 통하여 연결되며, 손목시계형 디스플레이 장치, 헬스케어 센서, 스마트 포스터, 홈 엔터테이먼트 시스템과 같은 주변장치와의 연결도 본격화될 것으로 여겨진다. 


IoT(사물형 인터넷)은 여러 영역에 걸쳐서 새로운 애플리케이션과 서비스들을 만들어 낼 것으로 제시하고 있다. 



6. 하이브리드 IT 및 클라우드 컴퓨팅 Hybrid IT and Cloud Computing

 


기업들의 IT 부서는 IT 관련된 활동들을 조정하는데 있어서 중요한 역할을 담당한다. 


클라우드 컴퓨팅은 이와 같은 부분에 있어서 새로운 역할을 수행하고 있다. 최근 발표된 가트너 그룹의 IT 서베이 조사 보고서는 클라우드 서비스가 기업 내 사용자와 외부 사용자들을 연결하는 효율적인 도구가 될 수 있음을 제시하고 있다. 


일련의 서비스 브로커리지로서의 클라우드 서비스는 IT의 소비수단으로 점점 더 부각되고 있는 클라우드의 요구사항들을 처리하는 가운데 새로운 가치 센터로서 자리매김하게 될 것이라고 제시하고 있다. 


 

7. 전략적 빅 데이터 Strategic Big Data

 


빅데이터가 개인 프로젝트 영역에서 기업의 전략적 정보 아키텍처 영역으로 중심을 이동하고 있다. 


대용량 데이터를 처리하고, 다양하면서도 복잡한 데이터 유형을 처리하기 위해서는 기존의 데이터 처리 방법으로는 한계가 존재하는 것이 사실이다. 


기업 조직들로 하여금 단일 엔터프라이즈 데이터 웨어하우스의 개념을 채택하지 않는 대신에, 콘텐츠 관리, 데이터웨어하우스, 데이터마트를 포함한 다양한 시스템으로 이전하게 됨을 내포하고 제시하고 있는 것으로 일련의 "논리적" 엔터프라이즈 데이터웨어하우스가 될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다고 제시하고 있다. 

 


8. 실행 가능한 분석 Actionable Analytics

 


분석기법 자체가 액션과 콘텍스트라는 관점에서 사용자에게 새로운 가치를 제공하고 있다. 


퍼포먼스와 비용 개선을 통하여, IT 리더들은 비즈니스에서 수행되는 모든 행위에 대한 분석과 시뮬레이션에 대한 새로운 기회들을 제공하게 된다. 


클라우드 기반의 분석 엔진과 빅데이터 레포지토리에 연결된 모바일 클라이언트는 언제 어디서나 최적화 기능과 시뮬레이션 기능을 사용 가능하도록 지원한다. 


새로운 단계들로 시뮬레이션, 예측, 최적화와 분석 기법들이 등장하게 되고 모든 비즈니스 프로세스 액션에 있어서 의사결정에 있어 유연성을 보장하게 된다. 



9. 인 메모리 컴퓨팅 Mainstream In-Memory Computing

 


메모리 내 컴퓨팅은 새로운 전환적인 기회들을 제공하게 된다. 


수 시간에 달하는 배치 프로세스를 수 분이나 수 초 만에 수행 가능하도록 지원하게 되어 클라우드 형태로 제공되는 내외부 서비스에 대한 사용자들에게 실시간 혹은 실시간에 근접한 서비스 제공이 가능하게 될 것으로 기대된다. 


기업 내에서 나타날 수 있는 기회와 위협요인에 대한 상관관계나 패턴 탐색에 있어서 수백 만 초의 시간 내로 스캔이 가능하게 되고, 동일 데이터 셋을 통하여 수행되는 거래적 혹은 분석적 기능으로 인한 새로운 가능성들은 비즈니스 혁신에 있어서 이전에는 가능하지 못했던 가능성을 제공하게 된다. 


여러 벤더들이 향후 2년 내에 메모리 기반 솔루션을 제공하게 되고, 주류적인 사용자에게 새로운 기회들을 만들어 낼 수 있을 것으로 제시된다. 

 


10. 통합된 생태계 시스템  Integrated Ecosystems

 


산업 자체가 보다 통합된 시스템과 생태계를 경험하게 되고 이전에 느슨하게 연결되어 있던 이질적인 부분들로부터 탈피하게 된다. 


이와 같은 트렌드들은 저비용, 단순성, 보다 확실한 보안 부분과 같은 부분에 대한 사용자들의 바람과도 연결되어 있고, 벤더들에 대한 트렌드들은 보다 통제된 환경 속에서 더 완전한 솔루션을 제공하고 규모 면에서도 새로운 기회들을 만들어낼 것으로 기대된다. 


실재적인 하드웨어 공급에 대한 필요성 없이 이와 같은 트렌드는 세 가지 단계로 수행되는데, 하드웨어와 소프트웨어의 통합과 패키지화가 첫 번째이고, 클라우드 기반의 마켓플레이스가 브로커리지 서비스가 구매, 소비 등을 다양한 벤더들로부터 새로운 기회들을 만들어내게 되고 ISV 개발과 애플리케이션 수행에 있어서도 여러 가지 가능성을 내포하며 제공한다.


 모바일 세상에서, 애플, 구글, 마이크로스프트사를 포함한 여러 벤더들은 다양한 통제수준과 애플리케이션을 통한 클라이언트를 확장한 엔드투앤드 생태계 시스템을 제공하게 된다.



번역 출처 : http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=2209615   사진출처 : 구글

자료를 가져가실 때에는 출처 : KISTI 미리안 글로벌동향브리핑(GTB)』


원문기사 : http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=2209615



Gartner Identifies the Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2013


Analysts Examine Top Industry Trends at Gartner Symposium/ITxpo, October 21-25 in Orlando

ORLANDO, Fla., October 23, 2012—

Gartner, Inc. today highlighted the top 10 technologies and trends that will be strategic for most organizations in 2013. Analysts presented their findings during Gartner Symposium/ITxpo, being held here through October 25.

Gartner defines a strategic technology as one with the potential for significant impact on the enterprise in the next three years. Factors that denote significant impact include a high potential for disruption to IT or the business, the need for a major dollar investment, or the risk of being late to adopt.


  A strategic technology may be an existing technology that has matured and/or become suitable for a wider range of uses. It may also be an emerging technology that offers an opportunity for strategic business advantage for early adopters or with potential for significant market disruption in the next five years. These technologies impact the organization's long-term plans, programs and initiatives.


“We have identified the top 10 technologies that will be strategic for most organizations, and that IT leaders should factor into their strategic planning processes over the next two years,” said David Cearley, vice president and Gartner fellow. “This does not necessarily mean enterprises should adopt and invest in all of the listed technologies; however companies need to be making deliberate decisions about how they fit with their expected needs in the near future.”


Mr. Cearley said that these technologies are emerging amidst a nexus of converging forces - social, mobile, cloud and information. Although these forces are innovative and disruptive on their own, together they are revolutionizing business and society, disrupting old business models and creating new leaders. As such, the Nexus of Forces is the basis of the technology platform of the future.

The top 10 strategic technology trends for 2013 include:

 

 Mobile Device Battles 


Gartner predicts that by 2013 mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device worldwide and that by 2015 over 80 percent of the handsets sold in mature markets will be smartphones. However, only 20 percent of those handsets are likely to be Windows phones. By 2015 media tablet shipments will reach around 50 percent of laptop shipments and Windows 8 will likely be in third place behind Google's Android and Apple iOS operating systems. Windows 8 is Microsoft's big bet and Windows 8 platform styles should be evaluated to get a better idea of how they might perform in real-world environments as well as how users will respond.Consumerization will mean enterprises won't be able to force users to give up their iPads or prevent the use of Windows 8 to the extent consumers adopt consumer targeted Windows 8 devices. Enterprises will need to support a greater variety of form factors reducing the ability to standardize PC and tablet hardware. The implications for IT is that the era of PC dominance with Windows as the single platform will be replaced with a post-PC era where Windows is just one of a variety of environments IT will need to support.


Mobile Applications and HTML5 


The market for tools to create consumer and enterprise facing apps is complex with well over 100 potential tools vendors. Currently, Gartner separates mobile development tools into several categories. For the next few years, no single tool will be optimal for all types of mobile application so expect to employ several. Six mobile architectures – native, special, hybrid, HTML 5, Message and No Client will remain popular. However, there will be a long term shift away from native apps to Web apps as HTML5 becomes more capable. Nevertheless, native apps won't disappear, and will always offer the best user experiences and most sophisticated features.Developers will also need to develop new design skills to deliver touch-optimized mobile applications that operate across a range of devices in a coordinated fashion.


Personal Cloud 
The personal cloud will gradually replace the PC as the location where individuals keep their personal content, access their services and personal preferences and center their digital lives. It will be the glue that connects the web of devices they choose to use during different aspects of their daily lives. The personal cloud will entail the unique collection of services, Web destinations and connectivity that will become the home of their computing and communication activities. Users will see it as a portable, always-available place where they go for all their digital needs. In this world no one platform, form factor, technology or vendor will dominate and managed diversity and mobile device management will be an imperative. The personal cloud shifts the focus from the client device to cloud-based services delivered across devices.


Enterprise App Stores 


Enterprises face a complex app store future as some vendors will limit their stores to specific devices and types of apps forcing the enterprise to deal with multiple stores, multiple payment processes and multiple sets of licensing terms. By 2014, Gartner believes that many organizations will deliver mobile applications to workers through private application stores. With enterprise app stores the role of IT shifts from that of a centralized planner to a market manager providing governance and brokerage services to users and potentially an ecosystem to support apptrepreneurs.


The Internet of Things 


The Internet of Things (IoT) is a concept that describes how the Internet will expand as physical items such as consumer devices and physical assets are connected to the Internet. Key elements of the IoT which are being embedded in a variety of mobile devices include embedded sensors, image recognition technologies and NFC payment. As a result, mobile no longer refers only to use of cellular handsets or tablets. Cellular technology is being embedded in many new types of devices including pharmaceutical containers and automobiles. Smartphones and other intelligent devices don't just use the cellular network, they communicate via NFC, Bluetooth, LE and Wi-Fi to a wide range of devices and peripherals, such as wristwatch displays, healthcare sensors, smart posters, and home entertainment systems. The IoT will enable a wide range of new applications and services while raising many new challenges.


Hybrid IT and Cloud Computing 


As staffs have been asked to do more with less, IT departments must play multiple roles in coordinating IT-related activities, and cloud computing is now pushing that change to another level. A recently conducted Gartner IT services survey revealed that the internal cloud services brokerage (CSB) role is emerging as IT organizations realize that they have a responsibility to help improve the provisioning and consumption of inherently distributed, heterogeneous and often complex cloud services for their internal users and external business partners. The internal CSB role represents a means for the IT organization to retain and build influence inside its organization and to become a value center in the face of challenging new requirements relative to increasing adoption of cloud as an approach to IT consumption.


  Strategic Big Data 


Big Data is moving from a focus on individual projects to an influence on enterprises' strategic information architecture. Dealing with data volume, variety, velocity and complexity is forcing changes to many traditional approaches. This realization is leading organizations to abandon the concept of a single enterprise data warehouse containing all information needed for decisions. Instead they are moving towards multiple systems, including content management, data warehouses, data marts and specialized file systems tied together with data services and metadata, which will become the "logical" enterprise data warehouse.


Actionable Analytics 


Analytics is increasingly delivered to users at the point of action and in context. With the improvement of performance and costs, IT leaders can afford to perform analytics and simulation for every action taken in the business. The mobile client linked to cloud-based analytic engines and big data repositories potentially enables use of optimization and simulation everywhere and every time. This new step provides simulation, prediction, optimization and other analytics, to empower even more decision flexibility at the time and place of every business process action.


In Memory Computing 


In memory computing (IMC) can also provide transformational opportunities. The execution of certain-types of hours-long batch processes can be squeezed into minutes or even seconds allowing these processes to be provided in the form of real-time or near real-time services that can be delivered to internal or external users in the form of cloud services. Millions of events can be scanned in a matter of a few tens of millisecond to detect correlations and patterns pointing at emerging opportunities and threats "as things happen." The possibility of concurrently running transactional and analytical applications against the same dataset opens unexplored possibilities for business innovation. Numerous vendors will deliver in-memory-based solutions over the next two years driving this approach into mainstream use.


  Integrated Ecosystems 


The market is undergoing a shift to more integrated systems and ecosystems and away from loosely coupled heterogeneous approaches. Driving this trend is the user desire for lower cost, simplicity, and more assured security. Driving the trend for vendors the ability to have more control of the solution stack and obtain greater margin in the sale as well as offer a complete solution stack in a controlled environment, but without the need to provide any actual hardware. The trend is manifested in three levels. Appliances combine hardware and software and software and services are packaged to address and infrastructure or application workload.Cloud-based marketplaces and brokerages facilitate purchase, consumption and/or use of capabilities from multiple vendors and may provide a foundation for ISV development and application runtime. In the mobile world, vendors including Apple, Google and Microsoft drive varying degrees of control across and end-to-end ecosystem extending the client through the apps.




참고로 2012년에 발표한 2012년 10개 트렌드도 첨부 : 그렇게 진화 발전의 속도가 빠른건 아니군.


가트너 기사 출처 : http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1826214


Gartner Identifies the Top 10 Strategic Technologies for 2012


Analysts Examine Latest Industry Trends During Gartner Symposium/ITxpo, October 16-20, in Orlando

Orlando, Fla., October 18, 2011—

Gartner, Inc. today highlighted the top 10 technologies and trends that will be strategic for most organizations in 2012. The analysts presented their findings during Gartner Symposium/ITxpo, being held here through October 20.

Gartner defines a strategic technology as one with the potential for significant impact on the enterprise in the next three years. Factors that denote significant impact include a high potential for disruption to IT or the business, the need for a major dollar investment, or the risk of being late to adopt.


A strategic technology may be an existing technology that has matured and/or become suitable for a wider range of uses. It may also be an emerging technology that offers an opportunity for strategic business advantage for early adopters or with potential for significant market disruption in the next five years. These technologies impact the organization's long-term plans, programs and initiatives.


“These top 10 technologies will be strategic for most organizations, and IT leaders should use this list in their strategic planning process by reviewing the technologies and how they fit into their expected needs,” said David Cearley, vice president and Gartner fellow. 

“Organizations should start exploratory projects to look at promised candidate technology and kick off a search for combinations of information sources, including social sites and unstructured data that may be mined for insights,” said Carl Claunch, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner.

The top 10 strategic technologies for 2012 include:


Media Tablets and Beyond. Users can choose between various form factors when it comes to mobile computing. No single platform, form factor or technology will dominate and companies should expect to manage a diverse environment with two to four intelligent clients through 2015. IT leaders need a managed diversity program to address multiple form factors, as well as employees bringing their own smartphones and tablet devices into the workplace.

Enterprises will have to come up with two mobile strategies – one to address the business to employee (B2E) scenario and one to address the business to consumer (B2C) scenario. On the B2E front, IT must consider social goals, business goals, financial goals, and risk management goals. On the B2C front, which includes business to business (B2B) activities to support consumers, IT needs to address a number of additional issues such as surfacing and managing APIs to access enterprise information and systems, integration with third-party applications, integration with various partners for capabilities such as search and social networking, and delivery through app stores.


Mobile-Centric Applications and Interfaces.

 

The user interface (IU) paradigm in place for more than 20 years is changing. UIs with windows, icons, menus, and pointers will be replaced by mobile-centric interfaces emphasizing touch, gesture, search, voice and video. Applications themselves are likely to shift to more focused and simple apps that can be assembled into more complex solutions. These changes will drive the need for new user interface design skills.

Building application user interfaces that span a variety of device types, potentially from many vendors, requires an understanding of fragmented building blocks and an adaptable programming structure that assembles them into optimized content for each device. Mobile consumer application platform tools and mobile enterprise platform tools are emerging to make it easier to develop in this cross-platform environment. HTML5 will also provide a long term model to address some of the cross-platform issues. By 2015, mobile Web technologies will have advanced sufficiently, so that half the applications that would be written as native apps in 2011 will instead be delivered as Web apps.


Contextual and Social User Experience


Context-aware computing uses information about an end-user or objects environment, activities, connections and preferences to improve the quality of interaction with that end-user or object. A contextually aware system anticipates the user’s needs and proactively serves up the most appropriate and customized content, product or service. Context can be used to link mobile, social, location, payment and commerce. It can help build skills in augmented reality, model-driven security and ensemble applications. Through 2013, context aware applications will appear in targeted areas such as location-based services, augmented reality on mobile devices, and mobile commerce.

On the social front, the interfaces for applications are taking on the characteristics of social networks. Social information is also becoming a key source of contextual information to enhance delivery of search results or the operation of applications.


Internet of Things


The Internet of Things (IoT) is a concept that describes how the Internet will expand as sensors and intelligence are added to physical items such as consumer devices or physical assets and these objects are connected to the Internet. The vision and concept have existed for years, however, there has been an acceleration in the number and types of things that are being connected and in the technologies for identifying, sensing and communicating. These technologies are reaching critical mass and an economic tipping point over the next few years. Key elements of the IoT include:

  • Embedded sensors: Sensors that detect and communicate changes are being embedded, not just in mobile devices, but in an increasing number of places and objects.
  • Image Recognition: Image recognition technologies strive to identify objects, people, buildings, places logos, and anything else that has value to consumers and enterprises. Smartphones and tablets equipped with cameras have pushed this technology from mainly industrial applications to broad consumer and enterprise applications.
  • Near Field Communication (NFC) payment: NFC allows users to make payments by waving their mobile phone in front of a compatible reader. Once NFC is embedded in a critical mass of phones for payment, industries such as public transportation, airlines, retail and healthcare can explore other areas in which NFC technology can improve efficiency and customer service.


App Stores and Marketplaces. 


Application stores by Apple and Android provide marketplaces where hundreds of thousands of applications are available to mobile users. Gartner forecasts that by 2014, there will be more than 70 billion mobile application downloads from app stores every year. This will grow from a consumer-only phenomena to an enterprise focus. With enterprise app stores, the role of IT shifts from that of a centralized planner to a market manager providing governance and brokerage services to users and potentially an ecosystem to support entrepreneurs. Enterprises should use a managed diversity approach to focus on app store efforts and segment apps by risk and value.


Next-Generation Analytics. 


Analytics is growing along three key dimensions:

  1. From traditional offline analytics to in-line embedded analytics. This has been the focus for many efforts in the past and will continue to be an important focus for analytics.
  2. From analyzing historical data to explain what happened to analyzing historical and real-time data from multiple systems to simulate and predict the future.
  3. Over the next three years, analytics will mature along a third dimension, from structured and simple data analyzed by individuals to analysis of complex information of many types (text, video, etc…) from many systems supporting a collaborative decision process that brings multiple people together to analyze, brainstorm and make decisions.

Analytics is also beginning to shift to the cloud and exploit cloud resources for high performance and grid computing.

In 2011 and 2012, analytics will increasingly focus on decisions and collaboration. The new step is to provide simulation, prediction, optimization and other analytics, not simply information, to empower even more decision flexibility at the time and place of every business process action.


Big Data.


 The size, complexity of formats and speed of delivery exceeds the capabilities of traditional data management technologies; it requires the use of new or exotic technologies simply to manage the volume alone. Many new technologies are emerging, with the potential to be disruptive (e.g., in-memory DBMS). Analytics has become a major driving application for data warehousing, with the use of MapReduce outside and inside the DBMS, and the use of self-service data marts. One major implication of big data is that in the future users will not be able to put all useful information into a single data warehouse. Logical data warehouses bringing together information from multiple sources as needed will replace the single data warehouse model. 


In-Memory Computing.


 Gartner sees huge use of flash memory in consumer devices, entertainment equipment and other embedded IT systems. In addition, it offers a new layer of the memory hierarchy in servers that has key advantages — space, heat, performance and ruggedness among them. Besides delivering a new storage tier, the availability of large amounts of memory is driving new application models. In-memory applications platforms include in-memory analytics, event processing platforms, in-memory application servers, in-memory data management and in-memory messaging.

Running existing applications in-memory or refactoring these applications to exploit in-memory approaches can result in improved transactional application performance and scalability, lower latency (less than one microsecond) application messaging, dramatically faster batch execution and faster response time in analytical applications. As cost and availability of memory intensive hardware platforms reach tipping points in 2012 and 2013, the in-memory approach will enter the mainstream.


Extreme Low-Energy Servers.


 The adoption of low-energy servers — the radical new systems being proposed, announced and marketed by mostly new entrants to the server business —will take the buyer on a trip backward in time. These systems are built on low-power processors typically used in mobile devices. The potential advantage is delivering 30 times or more processors in a particular server unit with lower power consumption vs. current server approaches. The new approach is well suited for certain non-compute intensive tasks such as map/reduce workloads or delivery of static objects to a website. However, most applications will require more processing power, and the low-energy server model potentially increases management costs, undercutting broader use of the approach.


Cloud Computing.


 Cloud is a disruptive force and has the potential for broad long-term impact in most industries. While the market remains in its early stages in 2011 and 2012, it will see the full range of large enterprise providers fully engaged in delivering a range of offerings to build cloud environments and deliver cloud services. Oracle, IBM and SAP all have major initiatives to deliver a broader range of cloud services over the next two years. As Microsoft continues to expand its cloud offering, and these traditional enterprise players expand offerings, users will see competition heat up and enterprise-level cloud services increase.

Enterprises are moving from trying to understand the cloud to making decisions on selected workloads to implement on cloud services and where they need to build out private clouds. Hybrid cloud computing which brings together external public cloud services and internal private cloud services, as well as the capabilities to secure, manage and govern the entire cloud spectrum will be a major focus for 2012. From a security perspective new certification programs including FedRAMP and CAMM will be ready for initial trial, setting the stage for more secure cloud computing. On the private cloud front, IT will be challenged to bring operations and development groups closer together using “DevOps” concepts in order to approach the speed and efficiencies of public cloud service providers.




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